It appears to resemble a polar fox, albeit not yet plump. Every year, we believe that things cannot get any worse, and yet the following year is even more challenging.
(https://small-bizsense.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/Depositphotos_12174049_s-2019.jpg)
The tech industry is facing various issues such as the depletion of IPv4 addresses; however, people do not seem too concerned about it. The scarcity of semiconductors has led to a semi-increase in prices, whereas MS is tightening its grip further. The import-substituting Baikal is making a comeback, and VPN blockings are becoming prevalent, similar to what is happening in China. On top of that, remote control has altered VDS consumption, and the Antimonopoly Service is targeting large IT companies, which is good news for consumers.
Most of these problems lead to increased costs and ultimately end up being paid by consumers due to how economies work.
IPv4 addresses have been running out for years, and there are rumors circulating that they must be bought urgently. Still, people are not entirely sure why. Some individuals collect them in bulk for subleasing purposes, while others continue to rent them instead of acquiring ownership. My personal opinion is that the market is overheated, and the rise in IPv4's price will encourage the masses to transition to IPv6 eventually. The increase in price could promote adoption, and IPv4 addresses may become obsolete in the future, similar to five-digit ICQs. IPv6 is crucial primarily for IoT and devices that require 5G networks. However, activists burning down 5G towers may slow down IPv6 adoption.
Currently, addresses are increasing by 20% per year. If they double, we may need to revise our pricing policy or impose restrictions like having no more than one IPv4 per person. Facebook and Google may remain tied to IPv4 for some time due to compatibility issues, but smaller companies may not require it soon.
All commercial structures using MS software operate under SPLA for the transfer within SaaS to end-users. MS is tightening its grip on licensing even further, and I think this may lead to a reform of the SPLA, although MS has not yet announced its intentions.
there were previous agreements with partners who distribute software as a lease through the Microsoft SPLA channel. These were multiyear contracts, but now they are not being renewed, and new agreements are not being made either. This may indicate a future shift in the principle of software licensing, as the current system allows for pirated versions to be used widely. Hosting providers that use desktop Windows may have to figure out how to switch to *nix or buy licenses due to market consolidation and increased responsibility policies by MS. Prices may rise as a result.
Three companies, 1C, Mont, and Softline, can sign agreements on behalf of MS, but they are currently forbidden from renegotiating ordinary contracts. Sublicensing is an option, but it gives full access to the infrastructure and may cause some confusion among hosts. MS could consolidate cloud services to alleviate this issue, but it remains uncertain.
The semiconductor shortage is due to factories shutting down during quarantine, resulting in delays and increased prices of orders. Self-assembled hardware is particularly affected, and there is a serious shortage of processors used in disk controllers. Delivery times have increased significantly, with some predicted deliveries approaching 15 weeks. Ultimately, consumers may end up paying for the price increase.
Providers are hesitant to turn on IPv6, even after receiving requests from people for its implementation. Technical support teams are unresponsive to IPv6 related issues, and the service is considered unnecessary by some providers.
Despite the benefits of IPv6, such as lower hardware strain and better latency, there are still psychological barriers preventing its widespread adoption. The writer suggests that making IPv6 mandatory at the legislative level may be necessary. Administrators who spread myths and misinformation about IPv6 should be let go, as there is not much difference between configuring IPv6 and IPv4. It's possible that the adoption of IPv6 could be accelerated if both technical and psychological obstacles are addressed.
I see a complex landscape of challenges evolving in the tech industry. The situation with IPv4 addresses is indeed pressing, and it's concerning that there isn't enough public awareness about the depletion of these addresses. While some individuals are hoarding them for subleasing, others are hesitant to invest due to the overheated market. The increase in the price of IPv4 addresses might indeed push the industry towards adopting IPv6, especially for IoT and 5G devices, but the resistance from activists burning down 5G towers poses a significant obstacle.
The tightening grip of Microsoft in its software licensing is also worth noting. The move to reform the Service Provider License Agreement (SPLA) and the shift away from multiyear contracts indicate a potential change in the principle of software licensing. This could have a far-reaching impact on hosting providers and consumers, potentially leading to higher prices and market consolidation.
The semiconductor shortage, caused by factory closures during the quarantine, has resulted in delays and increased prices. This has particularly affected self-assembled hardware and led to a serious shortage of processors used in disk controllers. With predicted delivery times reaching up to 15 weeks, consumers are inevitably going to bear the brunt of the price increase.
In the face of these challenges, the tech industry needs to prioritize educating the public about the urgency of transitioning to IPv6 and work on strategies to address the semiconductor shortage. Collaboration between industry players and proactive measures to mitigate these issues will be crucial for a more sustainable and resilient future for technology.